Edmonton Journal comments on the unknown factor
From http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/local/story.html?id=5d2aae...
280,000 'Unknown' Votes
Massive influx amid boom yields electoral wild card
Darcy Henton, With files from Jennifer Fong, Journal staff., The Edmonton Journal
Published: Saturday, March 01
EDMONTON - When Marilyn Clements moved to this province from B.C. two years ago, she expected to vote in the next Alberta election.
Now, she's not so sure.
Clements is one of 280,000 newcomers who have flooded Alberta since 2005. They've arrived in such massive numbers in some ridings that they could have a dramatic effect on the result.
They've come for jobs and new lives. Many, instead, have found a tight housing market, a shortage of day-care services, difficulty finding family doctors and long lines at hospitals.
Clements, 53, says if her husband wasn't working in the oil and gas business, they wouldn't be here because Alberta is too expensive.
Political analysts say the newcomers, who have ballooned voters' lists in suburban ridings, are the mystery card in Monday's provincial election because they have no traditional loyalties to the governing party and no prejudices.
They could sock it to the governing Tories in tight urban ridings, knocking off a string of key cabinet ministers, or they could send the Conservatives to an 11th majority.
But will they vote?
"We don't know," says Chaldeans Mensah, who teaches political science at Grant MacEwan College. "It's the unknown factor."
Incumbent Conservative MLAs say the influx is bound to boost their fortunes because the newcomers were lured by Alberta's prosperity.
"By and large people who have moved here have purchased a house and made an investment," says Edmonton-Whitemud Tory candidate Dave Hancock, the province's health minister who ran unsuccessfully in the party leadership race.
"They're working. They're enjoying the economic opportunities and they're excited about being here, and that usually translates into support."
Harry Hillier, a University of Calgary professor of sociology, says there could be a stark difference in the voting choices of people who have lived here a long time and those who moved to Alberta after 2005.
"People who came here up to 2005 were people who experienced Alberta at its best and therefore people who tend to feel that the party in power must be doing something right, and they will tend to support the Conservative party," Hillier says.
Those who arrived later and experienced the dark side of the boom may have the opposite view, he says.
"These are people who are more likely to take a critical view of government."
Hana Razga, 60, who is running for the NDP in Edmonton-Whitemud, says a lot of voters in the new neighbourhoods are undecided because they don't know the political land-scape.
"Some people are coming in here to make money, and some say they don't have any voting loyalty because they haven't been here long enough," she says.
"I don't think the influx favours the incumbent because a lot of people who come in from other parts of the country are concerned about affordability."
Many say they don't know where to park their vote.
Clements, who left Surrey, B.C., two years ago, says she was a card-carrying NDP supporter before she moved here, but now she's reluctant to tell anyone about her former political affiliation.
Darcy Henton, With files from Jennifer Fong, Journal staff., The Edmonton Journal
Published: Saturday, March 01
"I was sadly disappointed to find out the NDP had basically no presence here and no clout," says Clements, 53, who lives in Fort Saskatchewan with her husband and her son. "I was kind of shocked and amazed."
Clements says there have been few public forums in her riding, where Premier Ed Stelmach is the incumbent. No politicians have knocked on her door or left election material in her mailbox.
She doesn't know if she'll vote. "I guess I will decide on March 3."
The lack of adequate information about candidates and party platforms was a common complaint heard from many newcomers.
Fort McMurray resident Derek Rolstone, who moved from Vancouver in 2005, says newcomers have some responsibility to educate themselves.
"They don't have an excuse. They have to seek out the information."
The influx of newcomers has made it tougher on candidates who have had to identify and track down their votes.
It has been especially difficult in Edmonton-Whitemud, which has seen some the most incredible growth in Alberta. Statistics Canada census figures show the riding's population jumped to 56,596 in 2006 from 37,770 in 2001. The voters list grew to 37,613 in November 2006 from 31,027 in March 2005.
Edmonton-Whitemud Liberal candidate Nancy Cavanaugh says she's knocked on 5,000 doors, but there are more than 23,000 homes in her riding.
"How it will affect the election is a good question," she says. "But the truth is, all of these people are just people like any other Albertans and they have the same issues."
Out door-knocking in the riding Friday, she found many residents didn't know where they were supposed to vote.
While Elections Alberta officials contend they're coping with the deluge of new voters, Liberal Leader Kevin Taft has slammed their elections planning.
"There's been some real problems with enumeration and a lot of other issues around the election machine. In fact, our campaign is having to spend hours correcting mistakes in enumeration," he said.
"We're really, really concerned that the basic mechanisms of an election are not in very good shape in Alberta."
Elections Alberta spokeswoman Teresa Atterbury says Alberta is growing faster than any other part of Canada, but that hasn't been a problem.
"We think we're handling it. It's true that growth is maybe higher than it's been in the past, but there are mechanisms in place to deal with that growth."
dhen...@thejournal.canwest.com
© The Edmonton Journal 2008
280,000 'Unknown' Votes
Massive influx amid boom yields electoral wild card
Darcy Henton, With files from Jennifer Fong, Journal staff., The Edmonton Journal
Published: Saturday, March 01
EDMONTON - When Marilyn Clements moved to this province from B.C. two years ago, she expected to vote in the next Alberta election.
Now, she's not so sure.
Clements is one of 280,000 newcomers who have flooded Alberta since 2005. They've arrived in such massive numbers in some ridings that they could have a dramatic effect on the result.
They've come for jobs and new lives. Many, instead, have found a tight housing market, a shortage of day-care services, difficulty finding family doctors and long lines at hospitals.
Clements, 53, says if her husband wasn't working in the oil and gas business, they wouldn't be here because Alberta is too expensive.
Political analysts say the newcomers, who have ballooned voters' lists in suburban ridings, are the mystery card in Monday's provincial election because they have no traditional loyalties to the governing party and no prejudices.
They could sock it to the governing Tories in tight urban ridings, knocking off a string of key cabinet ministers, or they could send the Conservatives to an 11th majority.
But will they vote?
"We don't know," says Chaldeans Mensah, who teaches political science at Grant MacEwan College. "It's the unknown factor."
Incumbent Conservative MLAs say the influx is bound to boost their fortunes because the newcomers were lured by Alberta's prosperity.
"By and large people who have moved here have purchased a house and made an investment," says Edmonton-Whitemud Tory candidate Dave Hancock, the province's health minister who ran unsuccessfully in the party leadership race.
"They're working. They're enjoying the economic opportunities and they're excited about being here, and that usually translates into support."
Harry Hillier, a University of Calgary professor of sociology, says there could be a stark difference in the voting choices of people who have lived here a long time and those who moved to Alberta after 2005.
"People who came here up to 2005 were people who experienced Alberta at its best and therefore people who tend to feel that the party in power must be doing something right, and they will tend to support the Conservative party," Hillier says.
Those who arrived later and experienced the dark side of the boom may have the opposite view, he says.
"These are people who are more likely to take a critical view of government."
Hana Razga, 60, who is running for the NDP in Edmonton-Whitemud, says a lot of voters in the new neighbourhoods are undecided because they don't know the political land-scape.
"Some people are coming in here to make money, and some say they don't have any voting loyalty because they haven't been here long enough," she says.
"I don't think the influx favours the incumbent because a lot of people who come in from other parts of the country are concerned about affordability."
Many say they don't know where to park their vote.
Clements, who left Surrey, B.C., two years ago, says she was a card-carrying NDP supporter before she moved here, but now she's reluctant to tell anyone about her former political affiliation.
Darcy Henton, With files from Jennifer Fong, Journal staff., The Edmonton Journal
Published: Saturday, March 01
"I was sadly disappointed to find out the NDP had basically no presence here and no clout," says Clements, 53, who lives in Fort Saskatchewan with her husband and her son. "I was kind of shocked and amazed."
Clements says there have been few public forums in her riding, where Premier Ed Stelmach is the incumbent. No politicians have knocked on her door or left election material in her mailbox.
She doesn't know if she'll vote. "I guess I will decide on March 3."
The lack of adequate information about candidates and party platforms was a common complaint heard from many newcomers.
Fort McMurray resident Derek Rolstone, who moved from Vancouver in 2005, says newcomers have some responsibility to educate themselves.
"They don't have an excuse. They have to seek out the information."
The influx of newcomers has made it tougher on candidates who have had to identify and track down their votes.
It has been especially difficult in Edmonton-Whitemud, which has seen some the most incredible growth in Alberta. Statistics Canada census figures show the riding's population jumped to 56,596 in 2006 from 37,770 in 2001. The voters list grew to 37,613 in November 2006 from 31,027 in March 2005.
Edmonton-Whitemud Liberal candidate Nancy Cavanaugh says she's knocked on 5,000 doors, but there are more than 23,000 homes in her riding.
"How it will affect the election is a good question," she says. "But the truth is, all of these people are just people like any other Albertans and they have the same issues."
Out door-knocking in the riding Friday, she found many residents didn't know where they were supposed to vote.
While Elections Alberta officials contend they're coping with the deluge of new voters, Liberal Leader Kevin Taft has slammed their elections planning.
"There's been some real problems with enumeration and a lot of other issues around the election machine. In fact, our campaign is having to spend hours correcting mistakes in enumeration," he said.
"We're really, really concerned that the basic mechanisms of an election are not in very good shape in Alberta."
Elections Alberta spokeswoman Teresa Atterbury says Alberta is growing faster than any other part of Canada, but that hasn't been a problem.
"We think we're handling it. It's true that growth is maybe higher than it's been in the past, but there are mechanisms in place to deal with that growth."
dhen...@thejournal.canwest.com
© The Edmonton Journal 2008
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